On the job, waiting...

It is said that India will surpass China in terms of the number of 'working-age' population sometime in the next decade. That would be a whopping billion (mostly the next generation) from India and another billion from China alone!

While this phenomenon is being hailed as the 'demographic dividend' by many, a few foresee this as 'demographic disaster'. They say it is a potent mega-ton-arab-rising building up. The sad part is that nothing seems to be evident at this point which tilts the outlook in the favor of a dividend rather than a disaster. Neither are strong actions being taken to strengthen and retain the fundamentally agrarian nature of this populace nor are adequate steps being taken to create industries (what will actually kick-start this demand-supply cycle? factories? who will fund these industries? government?) that could provide a suitable employment opportunity. One facet of this problem is that most (70 to 85%) of the 'jobs' that seem to be getting created are in the so called 'informal sector' (read: plain wage earners, no papers, no security, short-term)

Lets zoom in a bit more here. Two 'jobs' that seem to have a huge demand in the rapidly 'urbanizing' India are: drivers/ chauffeurs and security guards. Informal, mostly. Most of their time on these jobs are spent waiting. A driver spends a couple of hours every day actually driving and the guard spends the entire day sitting on a chair 'guarding', which is again waiting (and watching their employers who seem to be from a different planet altogether). Hundreds of thousands of youngsters in India today thus spend hundreds of thousands of hours just waiting. An idle mind, they say, is the devil's workshop. And some of these people are even graduates! I can only imagine that a graduate devil's workshop will be scarier!

Well, some employment is anyway better than no employment. Right? Agree :-). My only wish is that someone comes up with a better way to utilize their 'bench' times. Here are the key ingredients: lots and lots of people. Almost all of them have mobile phones. And a lot of idle time. Imagine if all the complex human jobs could be divided into snack sized sachet jobs? Now put all of these together to create a solution.

Another way to look at this is to take an inspiration from the way a computer works. There are many layers of abstraction here. The web-browser that you are reading this very blog on is at the top-most layer in the stack. As you go a level deeper, you will hit a standard instruction set that tells the microprocessor to store something, move it, add it etc. Dig down and you will find that everything boils down to an immense array of transistors switching as logic gates. Your computer is just an orchestrated machine with millions of identical and individually simple (and microscopic) electronic toggle switches that can together be instructed to perform seemingly complex routines.

I am not sure what the solution should exactly be :(. I don't even know if it is even possible to actually develop one! However, I do know that it could make a (huge) difference for both the employed and the unemployed and their nations. To rephrase the challenge:

Create snack-jobs; reduce the unit definition of a job from a month/ week/ day to maybe a couple of minutes. Create a platform to automatically break down seemingly complex problems/ jobs/ tasks (which are best done by a human) into a very large set of smaller but simpler tasks (that do not require any specialized skill or education to execute), orchestrate a massive distribution of these jobs using mobile phones and an aggregation of the results using technology in real-time or near real time, featuring necessary error corrections through crowd-sourcing. Present the output to the systems that require it. Provision some form of incentive to each of the human contributors. Also, possibly allow for people to move up the skill chain to handle more and more complex abstraction layers.

Perhaps it would pan out as puzzle games that are simple at first but get more and more difficult on level ups?   A micro way to perhaps address a macro problem? Any takers?

Read more:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographic_dividend
http://indiabudget.nic.in/es2012-13/echap-02.pdf
India’s demographic challenge: Wasting time | The Economist
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_White_Tiger

The Mobile Handsets Family Snap

I have been reading and thinking of how the mobile phones have changed our lifestyle. A typical morning starts thus: Office dress? Check. Car keys? Check and finally- Mobile Phone? Check... Reached the main gate; something seems amiss. Oops, forgot wallet! More intriguingly, its interesting to think of how the mobile phones themselves have changed. The way mobile phones have developed in the past three years has been unprecedented. 

In this post I'll attempt a silhouette of this handset super-family snap and try to outline their places in the family.

1. The Young, Bold and Beautiful (TYBB)

Apple created a usability paradigm that was not just incrementally better than what was otherwise available but was transformational. It created and set standards that others have yet to surpass and has created an eco-system that others are trying hard to replicate. A techie may still call the iPhone a duh! phone, but if the queues at Apple stores and the buzz when Steve makes his "This is the most amazing thing ever invented" speeches are anything to go by, thats a killer product.

Google went ahead created a mobile OS called Andriod, where it had no prior experience. Amazingly, it succeeded in creating a worthy competitor to Apple. Actually a lot of manufacturers realized that if they had to compete with The Quick and Dirty pack (read on to know more about them), they needed to adopt an OS that would provide them the competitive flexibility of being able to churn out more designs and faster- Andriod proved to be a good bet. HTC Mobile is a great company that has innovatively adopted Android. Even Samsung has made some bold moves with it.

2. So Yesterday, Yet Trying (SYYT)

Lets start with a pioneer of cellphone technology: Motorola. Motorola literally created this market, saw its culmination and complacence in the Razr series and has been struggling to find its grounding ever since. Its recent forays into the Android with Xoom seem promising- thats officially the tablet space; its certainly lost its ground in the cellphone category.

Nokia has been a corner stone in the mobile telephony revolution that has certainly changed India. Rewind a few years, in the mobile app development world, Nokias used to be the targets for the Gold builds. The first two builds that would come out from most studios would be an s40 and and an s60 build. All the other builds would normally be ported out of these. I'm not sure if the case remains. I guess most studios now focus only on the iPhone version, the Android build and perhaps one for the BlackBerry. I'm sure Nokia still gets a spot, but the point is - its no longer the spotlight. Thankfully, to its credit, India is still flush with the Nokia torch phone (the so called 'made in india' 1100, 1200 series), second hand N Series and third hand S40s and S60 that still make it a majority by existing numbers. Some of its new avatars also seem to show some promise. Again, far from its glory days.

Sony Ericsson, Siemens, Sagem - heard of them lately?

Windows Mobile. The reviews for Windows 7 interface have been rave, but lets face it- these guys have been around for a long time (remember the iPaq days?) and have not been able to make a worthy dent in this domain; very unlikely that they could.

The Symbian OS. Once considered a powerhouse OS designed for the mobile platform, it was a developer's nightmare platform. Sigh, even its parents don't love it anymore! Nokia recently announced that it plans to orphan Symbian and has already adopted Windows (a case of: you're sinking, I'm sinking, lets party and try not sink together?). 

BlackBerry from Research In Motion is one helluva 'ol timer that seems to have been able to stand on its own amidst waves upon waves of assault by dozens of old and new handsets. It seems to have succeeded in packaging itself youthfully afresh, despite its age. RIM bastion has been its rock solid messaging interface, instant push emails to instant messaging- RIM has simply got this spot on, not to mention its messaging friendly key layouts both soft and hard.

3. The Quick Guns. (TQG)

In 2007 (I think) a miracle happened. This miracle was a chipset made by a Taiwanese company called MediaTek. Its SoC (System on a Chip) dramatically reduced the component count, the time taken and the cost of building a cellphone. At the same time, it dramatically increased the number of people who had access to the reference design, increased reliability as a platform and suddenly unleashed a wave of handsets that have swept TYBBs and the SYYTs off their feet.

Another miracle that happened was Shenzhen. Shenzhen is an electronics manufacturing powerhouse. And the scale I've read, is mind boggling. Read this blog to get a feel of its size and this one (also has a video) to read its scale. In India 'China Phone' is a known acronym and customers come asking specifically for it. But Shenzhen has something much more interesting. It churns out three categories of devices: 

1. Original handsets. 

2. Handsets that look like original handsets aka fakes/ phonies 

3. Handsets that are are ingenious. 

Suddenly new models began to get churned out every week and even days! while earlier the So Yesterdays painstakingly churned new ones out every quarter or two.

I'm not sure, but am led to believe that a spate of companies in India owe their origins to MediaTek and Shenzhen. These pack is led here by the likes of Micromax, Carbonn, Lava, Lemon and a bevy of names that just seem to keep popping up. Slowly but steadily, this pack began to corner a significant share of the market which was till now being held by Nokias and their likes (SYYTs) by focusing first on the tier-2, 3 and rural markets. They also focussed on features like music, video, radio and multi-SIM. Despite the fact that on most devices usability sucked, the sheer variety and incredible cheapness seem to have gone their way.

Micromax is an interesting company which I believe is trying to mature from being cheap-shenzhenish-copy-plus-a-few-features phone seller to a new-feature-centric phones churner. One innovation from its stable has been the Micromax A60 'My first Android'- the cheapest and a pretty decent Andriod phone for the masses retailing first hand at about Rs. 6500 when I had last checked.

The road ahead?

For TYBB, they need to ensure that they always remain a few notches ahead of the rest of the pack. Youthful looks don't really last that long.

For SYYT, they are bound to be sandwiched from the top by TYBB and the bottom by TQG. They need to ensure that they find their sweet-spots. Real fast.

For TQG, the very fact that they can themselves be engulfed by another TQG clone launched today means that they need to move from being simple phone sellers to value sellers.

Update:

Check out the stats from Business Standard India (http://business-standard.com/india/news/reconnect/432525/) that support this story with some numbers!

Powering the next billion cell phones

Despite the state of affairs with the world economy, there seems to be a sense of a treasure hunt as far as mobile companies' approach to the developing world is concerned.

Considering all the 'little' insights seriously could go a long way in ensuring the viability of a product or service in such a challenging environment. In other words; I think that the best way to approach this market is with a clear sense of the opportunity it presents and a much clearer sense of its constrains.

From a recent trip to rural India undertaken as a part of a usability research team, I realized that the biggest constraint to the uptake of mobile phone there was not money. From our conversations with existing users, we found that almost all of them used really basic handsets, some even bought as second/ third hand refurbished devices where the cost was just a couple of hundred rupees ($4 or 5!).

Connectivity was also fast becoming a non-issue with major operators trying to set up really extensive rural networks and even competing with each other to offer 'lifetime' pre-paid connections for less than half a dollar! We even saw how local village stores (each, just about the size of a small car) had morphed into outlets there selling small value airtime recharges.

The major concern there was finding a means to recharge ones phone! and to find a phone that required shorter recharges and lasted longer. I'd like to share two interesting developments (thanks again to textually.org) in the past week give some hope here.

Solar powered phone.
Heres a launch news from Samsung and LG - earlier this year. I think these should become as ubiquitous as solar powered calculators. Rural India is blessed with enough sunshine to at least supplement the need for (non-existent) power sockets!

Ambient radio powered phone.
This is more interesting, though it sounds slightly more ambitious. I have always wondered why this could not be done! There is enough 'free' radio noise around to feed some power circuits. I remember having experimented with Crystal Radios (basically AM receivers that do not need power source) when I was into hobby electronics (the most difficult part I remember was getting the ear-piece right). All one needs to do is have a gazillion tuned circuits to harness the spectrum. Anyways, the good news is that Nokia allegedly has done just that!. This makes for an exciting powering solution for the mobile phone, especially in the Urban context.

I don't know if the news links are really trustworthy news sources, but I do know that these are relevant pointers in the right direction and at scale their cost should be really low.

On a side note, I think it is constraints that push the human ability to innovate and every era and region has its fair share of the same. If all was well with the stone age, I would have been engraving this blog post on a stone tablet now :) - Flintstones anyone ;)?

Mobile blogging through Opera Mini

Of all software made for the mobile, Opera Mini java version is what I'd call an essential download. While the earlier versions had some issues with my Blackberry Curve (it was unable to somehow use the socket connections), version 4.1 fixed this for good. Though it now uses HTTP to connect to Opera servers, it is STILL much better than anything else out there.

Its way faster than the built in browser on my Blackberry, much slicker and easier to use, supports a full screen layout, renders as close as possible to a browser on a PC. For phones with screen heights greater than width view the page in landscape mode! A pleasure to browse and blog with :)

The way it works is:
- You type in a URL on the opera mini mobile app
- The app connects to the opera server (almost a proxy)
- Sends the url request
- Opera server in turn fetches and analyzes the site
- It seems to make good use of cacheing
- Translates the page into a format for easy (but real) view on the mobile
- Compresses and streams back the data to the mobile app
- The app renders the page in all its glory :)

If you are a mobile user (there is a mobile client for almost every mobile worth its name), just visit the operamini site:



PS: I started this blog post on my mobile but ended it on the PC.

Motorolling down

- Here's an icon that gave the world a technology product that would have the power to connect its people in a way it would probably have never imagined. Unfortunately, it is today an icon of what complacency can lead to. Its a lesson on how even a technology pioneer, a product giant, can be beaten in its own game by relative newcomers with the fire of innovation in their bellies.

Beginning of 2008, there were rumors of its mobile handsets division being spun off, then there were talks on its imminent fall, and finally signs on the ground - close to 10K layoffs reflecting its dismal state.

Sad, but thats what happens when a company like Motorola puts all its eggs in one RAZR basket. RAZR was an OK phone (I think it was pretty average) - but they stretched it way too far, refusing to come up with market-shaking new products at a time when the competition was churning new stuff by the dozen every week!

How do I choose a mobile phone?

With the wide variety of mobile phones available in the market today, deciding on which one to buy is a predicament.

Here's my tuppaise worth:
1. Your profile = your phone's profile.
If you are a college student, you probably need the entertainment features, if you're a business user, you might need email access anywhere.

2. Your budget.
Needs no explanation. Just ask - do you really need to show off a gold brick in your pocket?

3. Features.
Some features have become so common that they risk becoming the standard. While some favor 'get as many features as I can', some others prefer 'why would I ever need that feature' approach.

4. Compare.
The web is perhaps the best thing that happened for buyers. In India, MyMobile is an established reference magazine for the latest Indian market rates for mobiles. In fact their monthly report is so successful that it has become an essential tool in the trade. They had recently put up their database on their website as a drag and drop compare phones feature. Do check out this link [My Guide] before you head out to the nearest store - will save you some time making your choice.
Bottom-line: There are no hard and fast rules: to each his own!

WiFi, Cellphones and us - Wireless Frying?

In its entry on the microwave oven wikipedia says,

Cooking food with microwaves was discovered by Percy Spencer while building magnetrons for radar sets at Raytheon. He was working on an active radar set when he noticed a strange sensation, and saw that a peanut chocolate bar he had in his pocket started to melt. Although he was not the first to notice this phenomenon, as the holder of 120 patents, Spencer was no stranger to discovery and experiment, and realized what was happening. The radar had melted his candy bar with microwaves. The first food to be deliberately cooked with microwaves was popcorn, and the second was an egg, which exploded in the face of one of the experimenters.

So, thats how back in 1945 Spencer unwittingly discovered that his radar could cook him and his popcorn as well ;-). Anywayz, over half a century on, we're literally swimming in a sea of microwave signals. TV towers, telecom repeaters, cellular networks ... and 802.11 - the relatively humble WiFi.

What prompted my short study and this post was a recent BBC report WiFi: Why Worry?
lots of blog noise and the fact that I have a WiFi router in my house.

I've bulletted the 'givens' as follows:

1. Natural Electromagnetic radiation exists around us, the most obvious being sunlight (visible and otherwise).

2. There have been studies on the thermal as well as non-thermal effects of EM. The relative biological 'danger' depends on (a) The frequency (b) The power (c) Duration of exposure and an implied (d) Distance from source.

3. Following are some stats I could collect:

a. WiFi normally operates at around 2.4 GHz, 100 mW peak power? typically at 50 ft range.

b. A cellphone operates 800 MHz to 1900 Mhz with upto 2W peak and .25W average at typically 0 ft range!

c. A cellphone tower operates at a similar frequency range, power 20 to 30 W continuous at 100 ft plus range.

d. Microwave ovens emit around 1000W peak though human exposure due to typical leaks out of the box are less than .1 W.

On one hand there are many a scare sites that say - "look, if this stuff can 'pop' corn and break down DNA structure of bio materials inside a petri dish - it can fry you too! So cover yourself with anti-EMF paint and wear a Aluminium Foil Deflector Helmet"

Here's a seriously fun study that some MIT dudes conducted with the AFDH.

At the other extreme are many 'studies' (some say - industry sponsored) as well which conclude that normal human exposure to these is 'fine' since they haven't literally found anyone 'directly' fried or even made cancerous directly through WiFi or cellphone! - at least statistically.

So, where does that leave us? The usual middle ground for now - avoid em as much as possible - for instance - by not gluing the cellphone next to ones ears for over a few mins, not fixing the WiFi router under the office chair (does someone do that?) and not drying a cat inside the microwave oven! ;-)

Gphone , Android and the Open Handset Alliance

I hereby 'relay' announce 'the' Mobile Revolution - The quiet November Storm - as I hope this initiative will be known down the lane by future generations (and I thought iPhone was the coolest thing for the year)

What is really unnerving is the false sense of calm (say, viz. the Apple Way) that seems to accompany the announcement. This IS the most understated product announcement I have come across. Well, Google being Google does not really have to try hard ;-). Here's the link to the official google blog:
Official Google Blog: Where's my Gphone?

And if you've got time, you might as well check out this cute video on the Open Handset Alliance:


Here's a gist of what has/is to happen:

• The 'Gphone' that the enthusiasts had speculated has arrived! albeit as quoted from their intro video "as a cool moniker for 'Android' ".
• Android heralds the Open Handset Alliance. A consortium of the top stars in the mobile manufacturing ecosystem.
• What this means to developers - An absolutely OPEN, FLEXIBLE and POWERFUL mobile software platform. WOW!
• So if I now want to make a mobile phone exclusively for my dog which uses barks as dial commands and special barks as ringtones and runs a dating service for dogs in the locality - I should be able to.
• There will be no such thing as a lowly limited third party app! Every app will be as good as a native app and anyone can add/remove modules to one's satisfaction.
• So - move over Symbian, MS, iPhone and what not, make way for the Android. (Hmm..., sorry guys hold on a while longer - even the OHA SDK is slated to be released only by November 12 - the devices themselves... - we'll figure out along the way :-) )

And here's one introducing Android (which had been acquired by Google)



Three Cheers!