Showing posts with label future. Show all posts
Showing posts with label future. Show all posts

Thursday, March 13, 2014

White label Human ATMs a.k.a Business Correspondents

We should look at our inherent strengths to solve some of our pressing needs. As a country, there are a few things pretty peculiar about India. Take for instance, the sheer size of some of its problems. Some of our 'problems' are as large as a few other countries' entire populations put together. Herein lies the opportunity as well. We are also, a massive sea of humanity yearning to serve its unmet needs and earn our rightful place under the sun. Technology has a huge role to play as well; not at loggerheads but complementary.

October last year, Abhishek (Eko) and Ignacio (ex BMGF) published a post on IFMR blog titled 'Extending the third-party aggregator model from ATMs to Business Correspondents'. This was a revolutionary thought and got picked up by the Nachiket Mor committee on Comprehensive Financial Services for Small Business and Low Income Households. The report was released by RBI recently and has generated quite a few discussions for its take on how retail banking needs to evolve in India.

Just to set the context, Business Correspondents (BCs) are firms or individuals who provide banking services to customers on behalf of a bank. The RBI established the BC model sometime in 2006 to solve the financial inclusion needs of this country. The BC provides the last mile access, reaching where a bank could physically and economically not reach through traditional means. BCs are currently tightly coupled to a particular bank. The BC would feature the brand of its bank, offer products of its bank and liaise with the branches of its bank only. However, interoperability in transactions is conceptually promoted and to an extent implemented. The BC is therefore a human ATM (and more, since the BC can do much more than an ATM can) and the community banker/ an agent of the bank.

Most implementations of the BC network by the banks have only attempted to comply to RBI/ finance ministry mandates for financial inclusion and have been restricted to 'Open X accounts in Y villages' or 'Disburse X rupees of government benefits to Y people'. Most of these initiatives have therefore been seen as cost-centres and as regulatory obligations by the banks and rarely have these been viewed as profit-centres or even as viable business units.

After spending many years in mere obligatory compliances and having spent significant amounts of money to fuel these endeavours, a few banks like the State Bank of India and the ICICI Bank have realized the need to turn this model around. Someone in these banks has rightly put his/ her foot down and said that the whole movement needs to be viable, sustainable and scalable to have any real and meaningful impact.

A few BCs themselves have seen that they could not sustain with a fundamentally non-viable business model. Eko, for instance, has been a BC which has used technology to ensure that its costs were razor thin, invested in ensuring a great user experience and has innovated on the products along with the banks. In short, it is in the best interests of a BC also to ensure that more and more customers, transactions and products flow through their channel and that most of these activities generate enough revenues to sustain them and their partners in the value-chain.

White label ATMs are a relatively new phenomenon for India where a third-party owns and operates a network of ATMs under its own brand and not necessarily for/ by a particular bank. The Tatas and The Muthoot Group have already started setting up their WLATMs in India.

Lets assume that a typical ATM machine costs Rs. 10 lac to deploy, maybe cost a Rs. 1 lac to maintain (rental, electricity) annually. Also, the average life of an ATM would be 5 years. So 5 years on, we must budget for some amount to replace atleast some parts of this machine, lets say this is just Rs. 5 lac. Assume that the ATM earns Rs. 8 per transaction. Ignoring the cash management costs, and security costs (which would be significant) and any other overheads; to break-even, every ATM needs to process approximately 140 transactions per day, every day for the next 5 years.

Also, of course, to set up a network of say a 10,000 ATMs, the capital expenditure is going to be significant (Rs. 10,00,000 x 10,000) and that capital comes at some cost.

Again, the following articles provide some context: A recent article in Times of India pegs a deficit of 19,000 odd ATMs for the public sector banks India compared to the targets set. Also, interesting is this article which quotes officials from SBI, which operates the largest ATM network in India, saying that its ATM operations were loss making.

Now, technology moves ahead way faster than banking can. Mobile banking/ commerce is slowly but steadily getting popular. The RBI has also published that it envisions a less-cash (though not a cashless) society in the near future. For all we know, physical cash might actually become much less relevant in the next 5 to 10 years. Perhaps mobiles will take over where cards have not? While this seems implausible, take a look around; if 10 years ago, someone had told me that almost every economically active individual in India would have a mobile phone, I would have laughed. Video conferencing/ tele-presence used to be stuff from science fiction! My mobile phone has more processing power today than the all the computers in my school lab put together. I am not implying that ATMs would become irrelevant anytime soon- indeed these machines would themselves evolve in ways we may not anticipate today, but they are definitely under time pressure.

With access to one tenth the capital required for ATMs, we could set up a human ATM network that is a hundred times larger. Consider a human ATM network that uses mobile phones/ mPoS as access devices. Add to it the fact that it would not need to overheads that a normal ATM would need, including power, rental etc. Also significant is the fact that much leaner and efficient cash management systems could get deployed here. The result would be a low-Opex and very low-Capex network of banking agents who would not only do cash-in/ cash-out but also educate, solicit and facilitate enrolment to a range of financial products. Also, these costs are nothing but investments in people; in agents who are entrepreneurs. Any improvement in their livelihood would only have a positive rub-off in the community that they serve and the nation at large.

The white label BC model, would achieve a sort of decoupling for the banks where banks would be freed up from having a operationally heavy involvement in these activities. Having endorsements from multiple banks or the central bank itself would create an environment of trust as a legitimate banking channel even for existing customers across different banks and thus more footfalls. This could result in better returns for the agents involved and could lead to a viable and sustainable financial ecosystem designed for outreach and customer convenience.

This model is not without its short-comings though. Managing a huge network of agents is no easy task. Selecting and appointing them is no cakewalk either. Also, people, as they say, are more vulnerable to break-downs than machines are. Each of these risks can arguably be mitigated through appropriate processes, technologies and audit mechanisms.

Prevalent perception is that while technology makes things more efficient, it also causes banking to lose the human touch. Perhaps it is prudent to seek a middle ground here, especially as this also involves introducing hitherto unbanked people to a formal financial system. A little hand-holding and human touch should be welcome, right? Eager to see how this concept plays out.

Saturday, October 24, 2009

Sense Substitution

Two interesting products from the field of neural interfaces.

Both of them leverage the fact that our sensory organs are just transducers which give inputs to a really flexible and remarkable signal processing system called the brain. This makes it possible to use one sensory organ to achieve a similar result to that of another. Sensory substitution.

In a very indirect way, sign-language or braille could be considered as external sense substitutions. But these two instances that I came across thanks to Engadget and Google, a few months ago, are much more direct. Interestingly, this article from HowStuffWorks seems to suggest that folks have been trying this since the 1900s!

The first is called BrainPort (their corporate site talks about a more clinical use of their product).
Essentially, here vision is being substituted by taste!
Do watch the following video:


And heres the second one.
Check out this browser screenshot to know how I came across this ;-)






I think this (seeingwithsound) is a way cooler solution. The interface is much more natural and amenable to daily use. Well, here, vision is being substituted by stereo sound - almost sonar.


In case you want to try what this feels like, just download their free windows software winvoice, plug in your web cam and put on a stereo headset. Definitely has room for improvement, but I like the ease and simplicity it offers (they even have j2me, winmo and android mobile phone app versions!).

The best part - both of them are non-invasive, non-risky and do not cost a lot. I hope this helps a lot of people who really need it now. Certainly good news.

Sunday, September 27, 2009

Aggregation of Senses

I like Nostradamizing the future of telecommunications. So, if you're in the mood for some etherspeak; read on...

One major hypothesis I have is that user interfaces will be neural in nature.

Here's another one: Services in the future will be about aggregation of senses.

Just look around- Blogs are an aggregation of personal journals. Social Networking is about aggregation of weak-relationships. Advertisement is about aggregation of perceived demand. Cloud Computing aggregates processing power. Malls and Shopping Centers aggregate sales. Indices aggregate performance. Cities aggregate people. Banks aggregate liabilities and assets, Cosmopolitanism aggregates outlooks. The list is varied and colorful. (Btw, a list aggregates items ;))

I think we intuitively like to see things bundled together.

So, what does aggregation do?
It:
-Hides complexities
-Introduces redundancy
-Eliminates single points of failures
-Massively empowers
-Still maintains individual identity
-Assumes positive outcomes for decisions made on/by scale ('all' cannot be wrong)

Heres what I mean by aggregation of senses.
In the far future, thanks to neural inter-networks, decisions, opinions and actions could be based on collective sensory experiences.

  • It will no longer matter if a friend is visually impaired, because vision would already have been aggregated, he could easily see through the eyes of his willing friends or even his cellphone camera. Maybe, even the cellphone would no longer need a camera!
  • When you drive (your futurecar), if you've subscribed to drive aggregation on the road, you'll be able to easily speak on the cell phone while you drive at 300 mph, because when you do, the necessary inputs and processing for avoiding mishaps will come from various people in your proximity and even electronic sensors within the vehicle and on the road
  • Virtual people will have 'real' implications. Virtual worlds will exist seamlessly with the real world.

By the time these things come to pass, the human brain would also have evolved sufficiently to handle such large volumes of data. Information density per person in 2009 is definitely magnitudes larger than what it was in 1909 and the only way it is heading is north, unless the human race decides one fine morning to completely shun technology.

This is the kind of stuff, that I think the Googles of the future will be busy provisioning, the people of the future subscribing to and the payment companies of the future banking on.

Snap, snap... back to reality.

Saturday, September 20, 2008

B2BC again. Hello, this is your phone speaking

Well, another news that reinforces my projection that the ultimate mobile interfaces will be neural in nature. Do check out my previous posts on what I think the future of communications will be. I call it B2BC.

Textually.org reports Brain Controlled Cell Phones. This time its a company called 'NeuroSky'.

Here's how it works (image courtesy: NeuroSky):

Whats really interesting about NeuroSky is the fact that they seem to offer Developer APIs and Kits. That's one helluva right move which could unleash unlimited creativity. I mean, if they had closed up the tech wishing to make all the applications by themselves, there would have been only as much as they could do (how many maverick employees can they have? A hundred odd perhaps? How many enthusiast mavericks are out there in the wild on the net? A couple a hundred thousand perhaps!) . Well, we should now be seeing more applications of this technology. I wish I had more time on my hands- I'd have definitely ordered one of those! If you are an electronics or software enthusiast/ student and are looking forward to a 'different' kinda project - you know what you need to do :). Do let me know how you get along, please.

Sunday, March 16, 2008

The future of communications - Neural Interfaces. Presenting Audeo

If you've read some of my older posts, you might realize that the way I see tele-communications developing in the near future is through Neural Interfaces - and I've been trying to follow a few cutting edge developments in this direction.

When we say neural - it does not necessarily have to imply 'implanted' capsules within our brain tissues. In fact, it seems the best way to neurally catch one of our 'senses' is to catch it someplace before it terminates into a sense organ :).

The latest comes from the world of sound (thanks to textually.org for the lead). The company is Ambient Corporation, its innovation is called Audeo and its tagline is 'Speak your mind'. I guess the tagline gives you a fair premonition of where this leads to ;).

What they have to offer is a neckband. Yes - a neckband that sort of eavesdrops on the neural signals sent by the brain to the vocal chords, interprets em and plays out synthesized speech based on its database of neural patterns and words.

And the good part is - you don't really have to even speak - just a careful trained thought that you are speaking something is enough to trigger this thingy. Awesome! A definite help to people who have problems with their vocal chords and just as helpful to people who might want to talk with their girlfriends right in the middle of a busy market.

Check out its demonstration video on YouTube:



Thats one of our five senses tapped digitally, others are well on their way. Soon we will be communicating in all our senses without - moving our lips, opening our eyes, reaching out our hands, sniffing with our noses or opening our mouths. Things are beginning to sound more and more like The Matrix to me!

Friday, January 25, 2008

The future of commerce in India - the Mobile way? Part II

Back in August 2006, based on the flurry of activities in the m-commerce ecosphere, I had speculated through my journal whether most 'commerce' in India would soon be transacted in a mobile way.

Very recently I came across another pioneer in this sphere. Its a vibrant venture named simply 'eko', which sounds like an echo and an eco (as in ecology) put together. Despite its jovial name, Eko means serious business!

To put it in its own words: "This initiative aims to increase the reach of lending organizations to low income people and also democratize financial services for this customer segment in urban as well as rural areas."

Eko addresses a lot of gaps that the other players had failed to, brings in a lot of innovation into taking banking (lots of interesting IP, that cannot be disclosed at the moment) to the masses and relies on a network of dedicated people and mobile technology to achieve this.

Watch out this space for more on this in times ahead.

Friday, January 18, 2008

Games Brains Play, Neural Drives and the future of communications

Back in 2006, I had mentioned that the future of communications would increasingly move towards a closer neural interface - I called it B2BC Brain To Brain Communication. I think good progress is being made in this direction.

I was trying to study further on what physical experience B2BC might result in; and thats when I thought of 'Déjà vu'. Déjà vu is a French word meaning 'already seen'. It occurred to me that future communication might be almost like a deja vu or out-of-the-body kindof experience - sounds a bit scary to me now (just as air travel might have sounded before the Wright Brothers ;) ).

Also, a lot of external information may need to be integrated with that already stored in the brain. For instance; say in a B2BC session, your new bank manager contacts in. The 'network' meanwhile would search for further details on the caller - say a holographic image of him, his name and location and feed that to your short-term memory center. So (if and) when you 'take' the B2BC call, you already 'know' and can visualize the caller. That would also require intricate knowledge on how the brain stores its information.

While delving further into such games that brains play and where the brain stores its memory, I came across following two sites of interest:

1. Mind Tricks Explained (PopSci)

2. Mapping Memory (NatGeo)

I obviously have some spare time now on my hands to do all this wacky and weird thinking. If you too happen to have some, I'd strongly advise you to exercise your thought muscles by paying those links a visit.

Tuesday, November 06, 2007

Gphone , Android and the Open Handset Alliance


I hereby 'relay' announce 'the' Mobile Revolution - The quiet November Storm - as I hope this initiative will be known down the lane by future generations (and I thought iPhone was the coolest thing for the year)

What is really unnerving is the false sense of calm (say, viz. the Apple Way) that seems to accompany the announcement. This IS the most understated product announcement I have come across. Well, Google being Google does not really have to try hard ;-). Here's the link to the official google blog:
Official Google Blog: Where's my Gphone?

And if you've got time, you might as well check out this cute video on the Open Handset Alliance:


Here's a gist of what has/is to happen:

  • The 'Gphone' that the enthusiasts had speculated has arrived! albeit as quoted from their intro video "as a cool moniker for 'Android' ".
  • Android heralds the Open Handset Alliance. A consortium of the top stars in the mobile manufacturing ecosystem.
  • What this means to developers - An absolutely OPEN, FLEXIBLE and POWERFUL mobile software platform. WOW!
  • So if I now want to make a mobile phone exclusively for my dog which uses barks as dial commands and special barks as ringtones and runs a dating service for dogs in the locality - I should be able to.
  • There will be no such thing as a lowly limited third party app! Every app will be as good as a native app and anyone can add/remove modules to one's satisfaction.
  • So - move over Symbian, MS, iPhone and what not, make way for the Android. (Hmm..., sorry guys hold on a while longer - even the OHA SDK is slated to be released only by November 12 - the devices themselves... - we'll figure out along the way :-) )


And here's one introducing Android (which had been acquired by Google)



Three Cheers!

Wednesday, December 06, 2006

'The phone of the future'

(Originally published on my w2forum journal on 4th dec 2006)

Found this interesting post on The Economist through textually.org - thought it would be a nice add to my 'future .. ' journal.

The phone of the future

The article aims to place the cellphone as the “the remote-control for life”.

Interestingly its author also believes that future devices may interact directly with the brain as I had mentioned in my journal.

Apart from that what is interesting to me is a prediction that storage media may improve so much that ... "In a decade's time a typical phone will have enough storage capacity to be able to video its user's entire life... Researchers at Nokia, meanwhile, speculate that within a decade, the cost of storage will have fallen so far that it might be possible to store every piece of music ever recorded in a single chip that could be included in each phone...". Whoa!

The article ends talking about researchers at Motorola already talking about “the device formerly known as the cellphone” :-)

Interesting.

Friday, August 04, 2006

B2BC - the ultimate future of communications.

(Originally published on my w2forum journal on 3rd aug 2006)

This might sound a bit too far fetched, but I have been a firm believer in a concept that the future of communications, mobile communications- to be precise, is going to be device form factor agnostic , ubiquitous and pervasive.



I am amazed by the advances in man-machine interfaces and in the knowledge that we are on the threshold of graduating to a higher form of interface - neural. In the future, we will no longer be using key-pads to dial in numbers or even play games! The screen itself will be redundant - we will 'see' in our mind. I call this B2BC, brain-to-brain communication- almost telepathy.


I am imagining a few typical use-cases:

1. Just think of whom you want to communicate with, close your eyes(?) and you would be able to communicate at the speed of thought. Perhaps, even see through the other person's eyes, and even feel the other person's emotions!


2. Or, say you suddenly fall ill. All you have to do is think of your doctor! And the doctor gets a sense that you are in distress and more importantly - can feel your pain! Diagnosis will be real-time and probably the paramedics would already be on your door-step before you can realize.


3. Immersive MMORPGs. Most youngsters of that time will live most of their lives 'in' a virtual world - Matrix style ;-). The 'gaming' experience would be as close as it gets to reality. Many people would need special therapies to help them differentiate between what is real and what is not.


Check out these links to get a feel of what I was ranting:

1. CNN Money. Surfing the Web with nothing but brainwaves.

money.cnn.com/2006/07/21/technology/googlebra...

2. CNN Money. Google on your brain.

money.cnn.com/2006/07/26/technology/futureoft...

3. BBC News. Brain sensor allows mind-control.


news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/health/5167938.stm

4. Cyberkinetics neural interface system.

www.cyberkineticsinc.com/content/medicalprodu...

5. Cyberkinetics brain-computer 'platform'.

www.cyberkineticsinc.com/content/technology/p...


What do you feel about these developments?
What about ethics? Who controls what?
Do you think this is the ultimate future of communications?